Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 13.542200 15.498562 17.607210 20.045116 22.782048 25.755767 29.227250
2025-03-16 10.416287 13.011063 16.027041 19.776179 24.295101 29.548633 36.099981
2025-03-23 8.991541 11.878223 15.398148 19.977141 25.744156 32.731307 41.798507
2025-03-30 8.082368 11.219721 15.210017 20.610618 27.675302 36.542416 48.444693
2025-04-06 7.084769 10.284200 14.510157 20.434674 28.448165 38.821725 53.160784
2025-04-13 5.980947 9.066460 13.293334 19.422380 27.980148 39.385973 55.591787
2025-04-20 5.526957 8.696280 13.175567 19.859385 29.445300 42.537481 61.570966
2025-04-27 5.120550 8.345108 13.038042 20.230515 30.805769 45.578553 67.512505
2025-05-04 4.638678 7.826892 12.602664 20.116065 31.433556 47.591635 72.073716
2025-05-11 4.177027 7.291083 12.088453 19.829180 31.763387 49.161063 76.035270
2025-05-18 3.845883 6.929568 11.805984 19.860943 32.548749 51.402436 81.044203
2025-05-25 3.596021 6.676383 11.668749 20.098102 33.643233 54.130981 86.870732
2025-06-01 3.321493 6.362458 11.418498 20.151202 34.474926 56.537598 92.385220
2025-06-08 3.025783 5.983339 11.029715 19.947420 34.879171 58.299751 96.988833
2025-06-15 2.829317 5.761063 10.883610 20.126851 35.896041 61.039565 103.198944
2025-06-22 2.726217 5.700529 11.010205 20.772753 37.709518 65.113350 111.676543
2025-06-29 2.505282 5.395046 10.677542 20.592775 38.113133 66.917977 116.573086
2025-07-06 2.187905 4.869979 9.904600 19.574349 37.012076 66.191258 117.296317
2025-07-13 2.095769 4.785749 9.939477 20.014098 38.466399 69.760475 125.233308
2025-07-20 2.001736 4.688392 9.940757 20.387934 39.816276 73.200633 133.077078
2025-07-27 1.856908 4.470183 9.691596 20.272646 40.273316 75.125253 138.418762
2025-08-03 1.705353 4.222332 9.364359 19.983768 40.390753 76.455848 142.779509
2025-08-10 1.600204 4.066373 9.208921 20.015749 41.098611 78.840492 149.044228